Syria: From Geneva 2 Montreux

As some Swiss watch maker's convention took precedence today, forcing Geneva II to open in Montreux, it sort of put into perspective the chances of anything meaningful coming out of this long awaited event.

Yet, after Ban ki-moon laid out the terms and guidelines for good conduct in anticipation of a day that would surely see much heated and direct discourse, it was hard not feel a measure of optimism as Sergei Lavrov made his opening address.

His conciliatory tone and talk of allowing the Syrian people to decide Syria's future, although expected, seemed both honest and heartfelt, could this really be a turning point?

But then up stepped John Kerry, whose preconditions and blame-ridden finger pointing laid no doubt as to how little chance there is for peace or reconciliation at this time.

It reminded me of the early days of the 'Arab Spring', when the fatuous quipped that it would all end in tears, because 'the Arabs just don't do Democracy'. Prophetic as that may appear, it seems now that the middle East must descend even further into chaos and bloodshed, because the West no longer does Diplomacy.

Syria: When enemies become allies

Whoever eventually claims victory in Syria, their greatest challenge will be to prevent the country following their neighbour Iraq into the sectarian abyss.

Although reconciliation may now look like an impossible aspiration, there is one, and possibly only one way, of achieving this.

As al-Qaeda and it's affiliates become more entrenched, moderate Syrian Sunnis should now see where their country is headed, and encouraged to go to Geneva. The prerequisite, or result, of any talks must be a cease-fire, the withdrawal of all foreign fighters, followed by constitutional reforms and safeguards, parliamentary and presidential elections etc.

Sounds simple enough, but the reality on the ground is that while Hezbollah will undoubtedly leave when ordered to, the foreign (and local) jihadists will just as likely continue to follow their own agenda, which has never included peace or democracy for Syria.

If we in the West can set aside our obsession with removing Assad, and try instead to show the moderate rebels where their future lies, there may yet be cause for optimism. For if the regular Syrian army and the rebel militias could be cajoled to join together to drive the extremists from their land, there lies hope that a true and lasting peace could follow.

There is little that unites former enemies more than the need to fight a common foe.

Egypt: Lessons from history

On the 14th July, it will be exactly 80 years since Hitler's Nazis were officially declared the only legal political party in Germany, thus a previously functioning democracy finally became a one party state.

By then, it was too late for military or judicial intervention, as the apparatus of state had already been twisted and cajoled and subverted so that there was no escaping the inevitable.

Hitler had been made Chancellor only six months earlier.

So, should the mere act of casting a vote then exclude a population from participation and scrutiny of it's elected leaders? Can the simple fact of gaining the odd percentage point over their rivals mean that governments are then free to oppress and harass religious minorities and political opponents with impunity?

Since when was democracy an event which only took place once every four years?

While the overthrow of Morsi must be viewed with caution, the alternative might be much worse, and far less democratic.

As with many things in International Affairs, the devil really is in the detail, and Edward Snowden's revelation that Germany takes highest priority for American surveillance in Europe has understandably caused quite a kerfuffle.

Those who might otherwise shrug and accept that 'This sort of thing goes on all the time' are now asking serious questions, from the conspiracy theorists who see it as evidence of a US-Zionist plot to exact revenge for the actions of the aforementioned Adolf & Co, or who see government sponsored industrial espionage on a monumental scale, to those who just conclude that, for Europe's dominant nation, it is nothing more or less than should be expected.

But if you add these acts to their execution of drone warfare and their support of terrorist forces and tyrannical regimes, then perhaps the time has come to challenge our North American cousins with a little more vigour, because, as Germany's own history shows, appeasement is no answer when a nation decides that it's own elitist interests place it above and beyond International Law and the consensus of human dignity.

If we cannot bring ourselves to ask such awkward questions of America, then we should at least ask ourselves, if this is the way they behave when led by an African American Democrat, what on earth can we expect when a full-on Rednecked Republican takes the helm?

Syria: A most un-civil War

So the G8 are hoping to achieve a joint statement on Syria.

Well that's a relief!

But what will it say? That we in the West want regime change, not peace or stability? That we helped start this slaughter and we won't let it end until we get what we want?

I don't think so.

More likely the usual platitudes about Democracy and the Will of the Syrian People; we might even bully Putin into agreeing some veiled reference to the need for Assad to step down.

All very meaningless and predictable. My concern, however, is the continual reference to the bloodbath that is Syria's 'Civil War'.

Because this is definitely not a civil war.

It is a sectarian insurrection: supported, financed, and largely fought, by external parties whose agendas and designs should turn the stomach of any right-minded person.

The real bloodbath, and Civil War, are what come after the fall of Assad.

Syria: War Without End Game

When George W. Bush declared his War on Terror, he was looking for allies to shoulder the burden and to help fight the common foe, but little did he, or any of us at that time, envision just what that war would look like, and who would be fighting it, a little more than ten years later.

Could any of us have known that the terrorist's dream of one day challenging governments, of massing armies of followers to their cruel cause, would be realized on the road to Damascus, and that the West would move from being the victim of Terror, to become it's greatest sponsor?

What madness has possessed our leaders is still a mystery to me, but madness it is.

We have changed from the opponent of Terrorism to it's champion, and the notion that our ambition of removing Bashar al-Assad is justified by the means of murder and mutilation mocks those who perished on 11th. September 2001.

The self-referencing cartwheel that is our fear of Iran, and the destruction of the most pluralist and secular state left in the entire Middle East, is nothing short of insanity in itself. The fact that we now support and applaud extremism and intolerance, just leaves me stunned.

As someone who grew up throughout the cold war years, when each International Incident could be the last, I cannot fathom today's thinking. We stood then for Democracy and Freedom, feeling that they were values worth risking everything for, but today?

The regime in Syria has been a tough and uncompromising opponent for many years, but is our enemy's enemy really someone that we want to embrace when their methods are so cruel, and their avowed aim is our very own destruction.

USA: What's Wrong with Washington?

When president Obama says that American politics is effectively broken and beyond even his repair, then the time has come to wonder, just how can Washington be changed?

With Tuesday November 6th. fast approaching, The State and Washington, and the state of Washington are understandably top of the President's agenda, but if he's unable to fix the problem, then what hope is there for change in the capital of the erstwhile world's leading Nation?

Second Term Presidents are noted for their desire to leave some sort of lasting legacy, so will Obama really tackle the bribery and corruption, otherwise known as election contributions and lobbying, if he gets to serve a Second Term?

One thing's for sure, if the other guy gets in, he won't even try.

LIBOR: When the circus comes to town.

So the Interest Rate fixing kerfuffle has crossed the Atlantic, with another set of indignant and surprised investigators and commentators, but I am left to wonder what all the fuss is about.

A bunch of large corporations manipulate a market to their mutual advantages, so what's new?

Laws are broken and trust is abused, but that's why we pay for police and regulators. 

And it's not just the Financial Sector that's guilty, almost every business, and a great many individuals, will do dirty deeds if left to their own devices; but that is precisely why we legislate against monopolies and why business ethics are essential to free enterprise.

The only surprising thing here is the pretend outrage and ignorance that it goes on.