With Tory backbenchers defeated for now, Boris is able to plough on with including Huawei in UK's 5G infrastructure, and while I would usually be against such a move, this time there is much more at stake.
During the whole Brexit debate and following stand-off, a trade deal with America was touted as both easy and so essential that Barak Obama came to lecture us while threatening to relegate us to the back of the queue if we dared vote Leave.
Trump has reversed this nonsense, but do we need or even want such a Trade Deal?
Free Trade sounds great, but most know that anything worth having is seldom free, economically at least, and, while TTIP contained many onerous demands, ISDS alone was enough to scare the pants off any self-respecting democracy that values its own population's interests over international corporation's profits.
One driver for voting Brexit, was seeing how EU attempted to bring in TTIP without any discussion or scrutiny, and only a series of leaks and public resistance prevented this tyranny, so why would we leave EU and then sign up to an even worse deal, because President Trump is a tough negotiator and he will ensure that his US benefits from any future arrangement will far outweigh anything that we can hope for.
So Boris is left with a conundrum, after placing such store on a Deal with Donald, how does he now get to walk away without receiving a savaging from the hostile press at home...enter Huawei.
By accepting Chinese involvement despite US objections, he may yet manage to scupper any phony Free Trade Deal, and let Trump take the blame.
Showing posts with label Brexit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brexit. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 March 2020
Thursday, 5 March 2020
UK: Whose side are you on?
The drive for change that saw the Tories sweeping to victory in December and Brexit enacted at the end of January continued into February with the launch of Hearts of Oak, a non-political and unashamedly populist movement, which sees the erosion and subversion of our freedoms as possibly the greatest threat that Britain and the World faces today.
I covered the event for Going-Postal and this is a short postscript to that article, because two days later Tommy Robinson was arrested for assault after allegedly striking an 'accidental' child molester during an altercation which occurred when Tommy attempted to perform a citizen's arrest on the man who had admitted indecently touching his 8 year old daughter.
My purpose here is not to redress the imbalance in the way this incident has been reported, because most people will have their own opinions which are unlikely to be changed by me, but to talk a little about someone who has become the personification of all that's wrong in today's UK, and this is true whether you love or loathe him.
To the Left, he embodies the political Right-wing, aggressive and outspoken with views that they find uncomfortable and intolerable, but contrary to what you might expect, many on the supposed political Right feel exactly the same, because with Tommy, the issue is not so much Right or Left, but right or wrong, and the question we should be asking about him, is not how nice a guy is he, or whether he likes Islam or not, but, does he speak the truth?
What the media omit when they delight in reminding us that he is using an assumed name, is the reason Tommy had to change his public identity. They choose to ignore the death threats by the so-called religion of peace, the threats against his livelihood and his family and the constant harassment he endures from all sides.
When we spoke briefly after the Hearts of Oak launch, I voiced my concerns for his safety, especially during his all too frequent incarcerations, and he simply shrugged and said "What can I do?"
This was not a cry for help (as it would be with most people in his position) but an acceptance that the next spell in prison might be his last, and if the state wants to get him, then get him they will. As Julian Assange can testify, Tommy's acceptance of awards for journalism is no guarantee of acceptance by our mixed-up and messed-up society.
But there is hope for Tommy, the reception he received when called to speak showed the regard in which he is held by many, not just in Britain, but around the world, and the growing demands that this persecution ends.
The general refusal of our media to explain why the police were called to Centre Parcs, or ask why they then let a child molester leave the scene whilst at the same time arresting the assaulted girl's father, does not bode well for the rough diamond that is Tommy Robinson.
It seems that the most difficult thing for our would-be elites to understand, is that Tommy Robinson is not an individual, he is a phenomenon.
I have met many Tommy's over the years, on jobs and in pubs, at football matches and on the streets and you can see images of their forebears in every photograph of those who fought for the freedoms which many of us now are prepared to throw away.
He's not everyone's cup of tea, and there are many things we might try to change about him, but only a lazy coward would deny that he is brave and determined. The point is that you don't need to like Tommy Robinson to listen to what he has to say.
I covered the event for Going-Postal and this is a short postscript to that article, because two days later Tommy Robinson was arrested for assault after allegedly striking an 'accidental' child molester during an altercation which occurred when Tommy attempted to perform a citizen's arrest on the man who had admitted indecently touching his 8 year old daughter.
My purpose here is not to redress the imbalance in the way this incident has been reported, because most people will have their own opinions which are unlikely to be changed by me, but to talk a little about someone who has become the personification of all that's wrong in today's UK, and this is true whether you love or loathe him.
To the Left, he embodies the political Right-wing, aggressive and outspoken with views that they find uncomfortable and intolerable, but contrary to what you might expect, many on the supposed political Right feel exactly the same, because with Tommy, the issue is not so much Right or Left, but right or wrong, and the question we should be asking about him, is not how nice a guy is he, or whether he likes Islam or not, but, does he speak the truth?
What the media omit when they delight in reminding us that he is using an assumed name, is the reason Tommy had to change his public identity. They choose to ignore the death threats by the so-called religion of peace, the threats against his livelihood and his family and the constant harassment he endures from all sides.
When we spoke briefly after the Hearts of Oak launch, I voiced my concerns for his safety, especially during his all too frequent incarcerations, and he simply shrugged and said "What can I do?"
This was not a cry for help (as it would be with most people in his position) but an acceptance that the next spell in prison might be his last, and if the state wants to get him, then get him they will. As Julian Assange can testify, Tommy's acceptance of awards for journalism is no guarantee of acceptance by our mixed-up and messed-up society.
But there is hope for Tommy, the reception he received when called to speak showed the regard in which he is held by many, not just in Britain, but around the world, and the growing demands that this persecution ends.
The general refusal of our media to explain why the police were called to Centre Parcs, or ask why they then let a child molester leave the scene whilst at the same time arresting the assaulted girl's father, does not bode well for the rough diamond that is Tommy Robinson.
It seems that the most difficult thing for our would-be elites to understand, is that Tommy Robinson is not an individual, he is a phenomenon.
I have met many Tommy's over the years, on jobs and in pubs, at football matches and on the streets and you can see images of their forebears in every photograph of those who fought for the freedoms which many of us now are prepared to throw away.
He's not everyone's cup of tea, and there are many things we might try to change about him, but only a lazy coward would deny that he is brave and determined. The point is that you don't need to like Tommy Robinson to listen to what he has to say.
Sunday, 20 October 2019
Brexit: Agreeing to leave
Just spent some time perusing the Withdrawal Agreement and (Original) Political Declaration, and have some layman's observations:-
They're not as bad as portrayed.
Yes, there are lots of protection for EU interests, but why wouldn't there be? It's their club, and they're making the rules. The main objection to May's deal was that the 'Irish backstop' left us without a proper negotiating position in the following trading arrangements which had to be agreed before the Transition Period could end (and this TP is very heavily weighted in favour of EU as already noted), so Britain could have been disadvantaged for a very long time.
From what I can see, after the TP finishes we're out, with or without a Deal, and yes, that is the Deal which actually matters, the WA is just setting the ground rules and the more slanted they are towards the EU, the more incentive there should be to conclude the new FTA as quickly as possible, and there appears to be an honest emphasis within the documents, that both parties should negotiate in good faith.
There are legal ties and protections which stay in effect after Britain leaves, but they are mostly mutually agreed, beneficial and necessary, or purely to conclude disputes and other matters arising, and these do eventually disappear with a minimum of 8 years (seems a long time, but it's already more than 3 years since the referendum).
Committed Brexit campaigners have painted the EU as a vicious and Machiavellian conspiracy, but my main objection is merely that it is Globalist and Expansionist in nature, a bureaucracy which feels it cannot be faulted or questioned and that is why leaving is important and why the time taken is well worth the effort.
Most of the objections to this WA (DUP aside), are from those with unrealistic expectations on the speed and completeness of leaving the EU, and those whose only intent is to stop Brexit from happening under any circumstances.
They're not as bad as portrayed.
Yes, there are lots of protection for EU interests, but why wouldn't there be? It's their club, and they're making the rules. The main objection to May's deal was that the 'Irish backstop' left us without a proper negotiating position in the following trading arrangements which had to be agreed before the Transition Period could end (and this TP is very heavily weighted in favour of EU as already noted), so Britain could have been disadvantaged for a very long time.
From what I can see, after the TP finishes we're out, with or without a Deal, and yes, that is the Deal which actually matters, the WA is just setting the ground rules and the more slanted they are towards the EU, the more incentive there should be to conclude the new FTA as quickly as possible, and there appears to be an honest emphasis within the documents, that both parties should negotiate in good faith.
There are legal ties and protections which stay in effect after Britain leaves, but they are mostly mutually agreed, beneficial and necessary, or purely to conclude disputes and other matters arising, and these do eventually disappear with a minimum of 8 years (seems a long time, but it's already more than 3 years since the referendum).
Committed Brexit campaigners have painted the EU as a vicious and Machiavellian conspiracy, but my main objection is merely that it is Globalist and Expansionist in nature, a bureaucracy which feels it cannot be faulted or questioned and that is why leaving is important and why the time taken is well worth the effort.
Most of the objections to this WA (DUP aside), are from those with unrealistic expectations on the speed and completeness of leaving the EU, and those whose only intent is to stop Brexit from happening under any circumstances.
Friday, 13 September 2019
UK: Is Boris big enough for Brexit?
The installation of Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister was a unique event in my lifetime - a new and truly popular Conservative leader. But what about Mrs Thatcher? [I hear the squeals, but she was initially extremely unpopular and only achieved popular approval courtesy of a certain Generalissimo named Galtieri.]
And, let's be honest, what's not to like?
A big, bouncy, blonde in No 10 is surely a welcome change from the humourless inhabitants that we have had the misfortune to have govern us in recent times. But it is this very popularity that now threatens him.
The forces are rallied and ranged in their lines of attack, and the suddenly sainted Scottish Judiciary, having declared open season on the British PM, have allowed the BBC to abandon all pretence of impartiality and join those clamouring for Johnson's head. Yet the northern judges are themselves guilty of the most egregious projection we have witnessed in many years, claiming the government are unlawfully "stymying parliament".
But just who is stymying what?
For more than three years Parliament has stymied those trying to enact the referendum result, and these 'judges' are now complicit in that criminality. With barely pause to catch their collective breath, they have branded the British PM a liar and usurper of parliamentary privilege and they have attempted to foment constitutional upheaval. If they really believed the PM was guilty as they charge, they should demand that Parliament be dissolved and a General Election called, but of course, that is not on their agenda.
Where does this all end, with Brexit on 31st October as planned, or a further extension or worse?
We shall have to wait and see, but one thing is becoming very clear, the opposition to the people's decision is now so entrenched and unwilling to accept anything less than capitulation and Remain, that only an immediate and absolute clean break will be workable, when the time comes.
Anything less, any sort of slow or 'soft' Brexit will be met with such obstruction and institutional malevolence, that progress will be impossible and we will be confined in a perpetual state of conflict until we limp out, or are returned to the EU, weakened and divided, no longer an island Nation but a chastened province, a coastal state of the European Union.
And, let's be honest, what's not to like?
A big, bouncy, blonde in No 10 is surely a welcome change from the humourless inhabitants that we have had the misfortune to have govern us in recent times. But it is this very popularity that now threatens him.
The forces are rallied and ranged in their lines of attack, and the suddenly sainted Scottish Judiciary, having declared open season on the British PM, have allowed the BBC to abandon all pretence of impartiality and join those clamouring for Johnson's head. Yet the northern judges are themselves guilty of the most egregious projection we have witnessed in many years, claiming the government are unlawfully "stymying parliament".
But just who is stymying what?
For more than three years Parliament has stymied those trying to enact the referendum result, and these 'judges' are now complicit in that criminality. With barely pause to catch their collective breath, they have branded the British PM a liar and usurper of parliamentary privilege and they have attempted to foment constitutional upheaval. If they really believed the PM was guilty as they charge, they should demand that Parliament be dissolved and a General Election called, but of course, that is not on their agenda.
Where does this all end, with Brexit on 31st October as planned, or a further extension or worse?
We shall have to wait and see, but one thing is becoming very clear, the opposition to the people's decision is now so entrenched and unwilling to accept anything less than capitulation and Remain, that only an immediate and absolute clean break will be workable, when the time comes.
Anything less, any sort of slow or 'soft' Brexit will be met with such obstruction and institutional malevolence, that progress will be impossible and we will be confined in a perpetual state of conflict until we limp out, or are returned to the EU, weakened and divided, no longer an island Nation but a chastened province, a coastal state of the European Union.
Wednesday, 3 April 2019
Brexit: It's all in the mind.
You are excused if you do not know that there is a legal challenge to Teresa May's attempted delay of Brexit, when she requested an extension to Article 50 date for leaving EU, because none of the regular media outlets seem to know anything about it either, if their lack of coverage is any indicator.
Even following Gina Miller's successful challenge, I, among many, will be surprised if our judiciary are sufficiently independent to overturn the assumed position now, and declare that Britain did, in fact, leave EU on 29th March, but hey, stranger things have happened (or so I am reliably informed).
Whatever the outcome, this situation does raise an interesting point.
If the extension was illegal, and we are no longer members of EU, then all trade carried out since 29th. was conducted over the Brexit cliff edge that we've heard so much about. Indeed, we are all now tumbling, or have already tumbled, over said precipice.
Now, this really is interesting, because all those medicines that were to be in such short supply, and flights that were to be cancelled and every other disaster that was to befall us, never happened of course.
The Irish 'backstop' and border, didn't interfere with anyone or anything, and all those illegal transactions that took place and tariffs that weren't collected, will just have to be adjusted over the next weeks and months, prices changed, books accounted and forms filled, just as businesses always do. In truth, that's exactly what they always do.
Every time that production costs, regulations, the price of fuel, VAT or any other tax, changes, then businesses adjust and prices reflect those variations. It's what happens.
If prices rise too high, less is sold, or different suppliers are sought, that's also what happens.
The point is, that these are all man-made or market obstacles, with man-made or market solutions, and there is no cliff-edge outside the fevered imaginings and machinations of the EU and it's complicit comrades.
Even following Gina Miller's successful challenge, I, among many, will be surprised if our judiciary are sufficiently independent to overturn the assumed position now, and declare that Britain did, in fact, leave EU on 29th March, but hey, stranger things have happened (or so I am reliably informed).
Whatever the outcome, this situation does raise an interesting point.
If the extension was illegal, and we are no longer members of EU, then all trade carried out since 29th. was conducted over the Brexit cliff edge that we've heard so much about. Indeed, we are all now tumbling, or have already tumbled, over said precipice.
Now, this really is interesting, because all those medicines that were to be in such short supply, and flights that were to be cancelled and every other disaster that was to befall us, never happened of course.
The Irish 'backstop' and border, didn't interfere with anyone or anything, and all those illegal transactions that took place and tariffs that weren't collected, will just have to be adjusted over the next weeks and months, prices changed, books accounted and forms filled, just as businesses always do. In truth, that's exactly what they always do.
Every time that production costs, regulations, the price of fuel, VAT or any other tax, changes, then businesses adjust and prices reflect those variations. It's what happens.
If prices rise too high, less is sold, or different suppliers are sought, that's also what happens.
The point is, that these are all man-made or market obstacles, with man-made or market solutions, and there is no cliff-edge outside the fevered imaginings and machinations of the EU and it's complicit comrades.
Wednesday, 27 March 2019
Brexit: Just say no WA
In all the Brexit shenanigans, the fact remains that if the people want to leave the EU, then eventually that is what will happen.
All this talk of May's deal or no Brexit is nonsense. May's deal is no Brexit, because it is the only scenario in which Brexit is guaranteed to fail.
Look at the alternatives and you will see that there is not a thing called 'no Brexit'.
There are only two ways to thwart Brexit:-
And neither path forces us the remain in EU if the people really want to leave.
The popular thinking, that a second referendum will easily overturn the previous result, is grossly mistaken.
When/if it is called, the media must return to fair and balanced coverage of the debate, and the British public are far more aware of the issues and deceptions than they ever were before the last vote.
Both sides will have their cases scrutinized in depth, and previous lies will be exposed remorselessly.
What effect will that have?
Well, the Brexit bus will need to remove it's £350 million per week, and replace that with £20 million per day or whatever, perhaps less dramatic, but hardly a deal breaker, and undeniably accurate. True the remainers will also point to the difficulty of negotiations, but an electorate that has watched events over the last two plus years, will know that uncommitted and weak negotiators were to blame, and they will demand a tougher, more determined team; in effect, they will want more Brexit, not less.
And what of the Remainers case?
The true face of EU has been revealed over the last while, and Brexit exaggerations will pale against the downright lies of Remainer rhetoric:-
An early General Election would probably result from either of these attempts to halt Brexit, and the results of this would be carnage for the main parties, resulting in a solid Leaver Parliament, with a firm mandate to get us out of EU forthwith. It's ironic, that the only person who might scupper this outcome, is the very one who did most to deliver the first referendum: Nigel Farage.
If Nigel allows his ego to trump Brexit, and splits the Leave vote, then history will judge him very severely. Should he choose to work with the other Leavers, the Brexit parties can concentrate their efforts and resources in constituencies with remainer MPs, by also agreeing not to stand against MPs who have a consistent voting record in favour of Leave.
The only people who should have anything to fear from a GE or 2nd Referendum, are those who have deceived and delayed during the past nearly three years; and the voting public know who they are, in a way that they have never known before.
What happens after the WA is finally voted down may not be entirely predictable, but if the people still want to leave, then it most certainly does not mean no Brexit. But, regardless of what the people want, voting for Teresa May's deal means that negotiating a beneficial Brexit would be virtually impossible, because the threat of backstop and remaining tied to the EU during negotiations, is the actual catastrophe that No Deal is supposed to be.
The EU have already demonstrated their lack of respect for Britain, and that was before they held the upper hand, and May's Wretched Agreement gives them that whip hand, while tying ours firmly behind our backs.
Just say NO way, WA.
All this talk of May's deal or no Brexit is nonsense. May's deal is no Brexit, because it is the only scenario in which Brexit is guaranteed to fail.
Look at the alternatives and you will see that there is not a thing called 'no Brexit'.
There are only two ways to thwart Brexit:-
- Extend Article 50 to allow for another Referendum, or a General Election.
- Revoke Article 50
And neither path forces us the remain in EU if the people really want to leave.
The popular thinking, that a second referendum will easily overturn the previous result, is grossly mistaken.
When/if it is called, the media must return to fair and balanced coverage of the debate, and the British public are far more aware of the issues and deceptions than they ever were before the last vote.
Both sides will have their cases scrutinized in depth, and previous lies will be exposed remorselessly.
What effect will that have?
Well, the Brexit bus will need to remove it's £350 million per week, and replace that with £20 million per day or whatever, perhaps less dramatic, but hardly a deal breaker, and undeniably accurate. True the remainers will also point to the difficulty of negotiations, but an electorate that has watched events over the last two plus years, will know that uncommitted and weak negotiators were to blame, and they will demand a tougher, more determined team; in effect, they will want more Brexit, not less.
And what of the Remainers case?
The true face of EU has been revealed over the last while, and Brexit exaggerations will pale against the downright lies of Remainer rhetoric:-
- No EU army. Lie
- ECJ does not supersede UK Courts. Lie
- EU is for Internet freedom. Lie
- No plans to make UN migration pact EU law. Lie
- EU is honest broker and will not seek to punish UK. Lie
An early General Election would probably result from either of these attempts to halt Brexit, and the results of this would be carnage for the main parties, resulting in a solid Leaver Parliament, with a firm mandate to get us out of EU forthwith. It's ironic, that the only person who might scupper this outcome, is the very one who did most to deliver the first referendum: Nigel Farage.
If Nigel allows his ego to trump Brexit, and splits the Leave vote, then history will judge him very severely. Should he choose to work with the other Leavers, the Brexit parties can concentrate their efforts and resources in constituencies with remainer MPs, by also agreeing not to stand against MPs who have a consistent voting record in favour of Leave.
The only people who should have anything to fear from a GE or 2nd Referendum, are those who have deceived and delayed during the past nearly three years; and the voting public know who they are, in a way that they have never known before.
What happens after the WA is finally voted down may not be entirely predictable, but if the people still want to leave, then it most certainly does not mean no Brexit. But, regardless of what the people want, voting for Teresa May's deal means that negotiating a beneficial Brexit would be virtually impossible, because the threat of backstop and remaining tied to the EU during negotiations, is the actual catastrophe that No Deal is supposed to be.
The EU have already demonstrated their lack of respect for Britain, and that was before they held the upper hand, and May's Wretched Agreement gives them that whip hand, while tying ours firmly behind our backs.
Just say NO way, WA.
Saturday, 23 March 2019
UK: Brexit lies and statistics
As the anti-Brexit forces gather on the streets of London, estimates of their number will be growing exponentially on the various pro-EU news channels, it might be a good time to see what 'facts' are flying around today.
Yesterday, in conversations on Going-Postal, about the petition to revoke Article 50, the origin of those voting and the number of votes they were casting, was guided how to capture the source metadata and this is what I found:-
{"name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count":1261367}
At that time, the total was a little over 3 million votes.
Today, hearing that the vote miraculously approaches 4.5 million (did nobody sleep last night?), I decided to check the numbers again [bold type is mine], and, hey presto:-
{"name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count":4171187}
Miraculous indeed.
Whoever said Lies, damned lies and statistics, they were undoubtedly highlighting the way that figures can be manipulated to serve a specific purpose, but what what see here is the manufacture of numbers that clearly cannot exist, because either the first or the second is false, or perhaps neither is true.
Either way, the data is contained on Parliament's own website, which takes the deception/stupidity to another level of deceit.
Yesterday, in conversations on Going-Postal, about the petition to revoke Article 50, the origin of those voting and the number of votes they were casting, was guided how to capture the source metadata and this is what I found:-
{"name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count":1261367}
At that time, the total was a little over 3 million votes.
Today, hearing that the vote miraculously approaches 4.5 million (did nobody sleep last night?), I decided to check the numbers again [bold type is mine], and, hey presto:-
{"name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count":4171187}
Miraculous indeed.
Whoever said Lies, damned lies and statistics, they were undoubtedly highlighting the way that figures can be manipulated to serve a specific purpose, but what what see here is the manufacture of numbers that clearly cannot exist, because either the first or the second is false, or perhaps neither is true.
Either way, the data is contained on Parliament's own website, which takes the deception/stupidity to another level of deceit.
Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Brexit: 13th March, a day of infamy?
With the second defeat for Teresa May's Wretched Agreement, our esteemed Members of Parliament now have the chance to finally support the referendum result of July 2016.
Today they can vote for a clean, uncluttered, un-fudged exit from the European Union, but that is the least likely of today's possible outcomes, and we will almost certainly move on to a debate tomorrow, on whether to extend or repeal Article 50 (which allows us to leave the EU on 29th. March, about 16 days from now).
The greatest tragedy of this obstructionist and undemocratic rejection of the Will of the People, is that it will leave our future negotiators desperate to sign any and all trade deals that are dangled before them, probably resulting in the abandonment of all of those promises of worker's rights, food safety and environmental/pollution protections, that we have been assured would be paramount.
This display of disunity, and our abject inability to negotiate Brexit with the EU, has also left the UK weakened as a viable trading partner and potential ally for those in the rest of world at large.
Today they can vote for a clean, uncluttered, un-fudged exit from the European Union, but that is the least likely of today's possible outcomes, and we will almost certainly move on to a debate tomorrow, on whether to extend or repeal Article 50 (which allows us to leave the EU on 29th. March, about 16 days from now).
The greatest tragedy of this obstructionist and undemocratic rejection of the Will of the People, is that it will leave our future negotiators desperate to sign any and all trade deals that are dangled before them, probably resulting in the abandonment of all of those promises of worker's rights, food safety and environmental/pollution protections, that we have been assured would be paramount.
This display of disunity, and our abject inability to negotiate Brexit with the EU, has also left the UK weakened as a viable trading partner and potential ally for those in the rest of world at large.
Friday, 11 January 2019
Brexit: Preparing for the worst
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst - sound advice, and in that spirit, it's worth examining what is the worst could be.
We've all been told about the 'cliff edge' no deal scenario, which is in truth a well understood return to WTO terms and conditions, so there is nothing much to add here as by now we should all know where we stand and where that is likely to lead.
There is also a variety of referendum reversal scenarios, requiring an extension or withdrawal of Article 50, and a 'people's vote' (though who these 'people' are and why they didn't vote last time is not explained other than bringing inexperienced and impressionable youth into what is an already confused and uncertain debate).
But the one scenario that has not been addressed, because it is currently seen as the least likely outcome, is actually most pressing at this time, and, as such, should not be ignored.
What happens if Mrs May's deal is passed in parliament?
With the initial failure of her WA almost assured, May is already talking to others about linking UK labour and environmental laws to EU regulations, and if she could manufacture an Irish fudge, it might only take Corbyn to allow a free vote, for the resulting abstentions and defections to swing the commons in her direction.
So what happens then?
In a word. Disaster.
Brexit in name only, NI backstop. End of sovereignty, the list goes on, and, unlike the scaremongering we have previously seen, this list is real.
And the effects will be equally real.
Expect early disturbances in Ireland, with the Unionists taking to the streets almost immediately, and such street displays will only increase in frequency and intensity until the official summer Marching Season arrives. How violent these become will largely depend on events outside the North, but bombs and bullets will certainly be on the agenda.
Many Unionists are unhappy with the Belfast Agreement, and with demographics moving against them, this will be seen as possibly their last opportunity to take back control of the province, and unlike the IRA, they have well known and established links to the police and military, so that a Protestant insurrection will take a shape and scale that we may not yet comprehend.
I doubt that the British mainland will also descend into extreme violence, although there will be ugly scenes and much discontent, but things can change very quickly, so, who knows; but the UK government will surely fall, quickly and decisively.
Disgusted politicians and voters will leave the Tories and Labour in their droves and if May doesn't choose to go to the people, the defectors will indeed force her hand. Expect UKIP to become a major force in British politics, probably even the leading party, not enough to win an outright majority, but enough to completely change the composition of the House, and what then: A Conservative/Labour coalition? Unlikely yet almost certain in the name of keeping out the 'Far Right', for which the ground is already being prepared relentlessly in the establishment media.
And all the time that this is going on, we will be trying to negotiate a future Trade Deal which prevents the Backstop from being implemented, while the EU will be blaming Brexit as they squeeze and choke their advantage over us. Expect Gibraltar, Fishing, Financial Services and everything else that they covet to be on their agenda, with only a split and impotent bunch of negotiators opposing them.
Just how bad can Ireland get?
If they take hold, then the new Troubles will undoubtedly spread, not to the British mainland this time, but south, into the Republic where pressure to impose a hard border will be Unionist strategy, thus causing the WA to be null and void. What will Varadker do; will he call for help from the EU and ask for them to assist as 'impartial' peacekeepers?
We do not know what will actually happen, but one thing is certain, whatever occurs, Brexit will get the blame.
We've all been told about the 'cliff edge' no deal scenario, which is in truth a well understood return to WTO terms and conditions, so there is nothing much to add here as by now we should all know where we stand and where that is likely to lead.
There is also a variety of referendum reversal scenarios, requiring an extension or withdrawal of Article 50, and a 'people's vote' (though who these 'people' are and why they didn't vote last time is not explained other than bringing inexperienced and impressionable youth into what is an already confused and uncertain debate).
But the one scenario that has not been addressed, because it is currently seen as the least likely outcome, is actually most pressing at this time, and, as such, should not be ignored.
What happens if Mrs May's deal is passed in parliament?
With the initial failure of her WA almost assured, May is already talking to others about linking UK labour and environmental laws to EU regulations, and if she could manufacture an Irish fudge, it might only take Corbyn to allow a free vote, for the resulting abstentions and defections to swing the commons in her direction.
So what happens then?
In a word. Disaster.
Brexit in name only, NI backstop. End of sovereignty, the list goes on, and, unlike the scaremongering we have previously seen, this list is real.
And the effects will be equally real.
Expect early disturbances in Ireland, with the Unionists taking to the streets almost immediately, and such street displays will only increase in frequency and intensity until the official summer Marching Season arrives. How violent these become will largely depend on events outside the North, but bombs and bullets will certainly be on the agenda.
Many Unionists are unhappy with the Belfast Agreement, and with demographics moving against them, this will be seen as possibly their last opportunity to take back control of the province, and unlike the IRA, they have well known and established links to the police and military, so that a Protestant insurrection will take a shape and scale that we may not yet comprehend.
I doubt that the British mainland will also descend into extreme violence, although there will be ugly scenes and much discontent, but things can change very quickly, so, who knows; but the UK government will surely fall, quickly and decisively.
Disgusted politicians and voters will leave the Tories and Labour in their droves and if May doesn't choose to go to the people, the defectors will indeed force her hand. Expect UKIP to become a major force in British politics, probably even the leading party, not enough to win an outright majority, but enough to completely change the composition of the House, and what then: A Conservative/Labour coalition? Unlikely yet almost certain in the name of keeping out the 'Far Right', for which the ground is already being prepared relentlessly in the establishment media.
And all the time that this is going on, we will be trying to negotiate a future Trade Deal which prevents the Backstop from being implemented, while the EU will be blaming Brexit as they squeeze and choke their advantage over us. Expect Gibraltar, Fishing, Financial Services and everything else that they covet to be on their agenda, with only a split and impotent bunch of negotiators opposing them.
Just how bad can Ireland get?
If they take hold, then the new Troubles will undoubtedly spread, not to the British mainland this time, but south, into the Republic where pressure to impose a hard border will be Unionist strategy, thus causing the WA to be null and void. What will Varadker do; will he call for help from the EU and ask for them to assist as 'impartial' peacekeepers?
We do not know what will actually happen, but one thing is certain, whatever occurs, Brexit will get the blame.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)