Tuesday, 26 March 2019

US: Donald where's your deal, then?

When the winds of change brought Donald Trump to the White House, only fools thought that everything he did would be good, and only bigger fools believed that everything he was to do would be bad. And so it has proven.

Perhaps his greatest achievement was in preventing Hilary C. from becoming POTUS, and for that, we should be forever grateful and this certainly colours my opinion of his actions; but his latest pronouncement, that America now recognizes the Golan Heights as part of Israel, is for me, the wrong decision, at the wrong time, and for the wrong reasons.

After his apparent success in bringing North and South Korea closer together, it would also be foolish to dismiss this latest gambit as irredeemable, but whatever the outcome, there were surely much better options available to the US President.

If peace between Israel and it's neighbours really is an aim, then the Golan has both political and strategic importance.

The most obvious solution, if Israel really wanted good relations, would be some form of joint sovereignty and a permanent demilitarized zone, all dependent on Syria's recognition of the State of Israel, the removal of Hezbollah and all Iranian forces from Syria etc.

Of all the Holy Lands, the Golan Heights have possibly the weakest historic claim to inclusion in Israel, unlike Judea and Samaria, which are well understood to be part of the Jewish heritage, Golan seems to have been fought over and occupied/reoccupied over many centuries, going back into antiquity and possibly the strongest claimants to the land today, are the Druze.

After moving the US embassy to Jerusalem - a long overdue step, and one which all right-minded people should support - it would be a great shame if righting ancient wrongs were to descend into nothing more than an opportunistic land grab.

The first principle of the art of the deal, must surely to be to keep your options open, and always hold the end-game in mind.

But it appears that keeping Bibi in power at the upcoming elections, and making life difficult for President Assad, are more important short term goals than bringing a workable peace agreement to at least one part of the Middle East.