Thursday, 1 February 2018

UK: Talking about Brexit

As Teresa May continues to tout for business, 'today China, tomorrow the world' (or at least USA, with president Trump's state visit back on the cards) there is arguably greater potential much closer to home.

With the victory of president Zeman in Czech elections, the threat of further defections from EU looms large for the same people we are currently negotiating with for 'favorable' terms, and if such a scenario cannot be exploited, then the UK really is finished as an independent entity.

And it's not just the Visegrad group who are shaking the EUs wobbly foundations, Austria too has found refuge in reason and voted to end the nightmare of Merkel's making.

So why are we not talking to these nations as a priority?

I can understand the reluctance, given the general media bias against anything to the right of Marx or East of Berlin. But negotiating is all about menace, and the merest hint of alternative affiliations in and around Europe (especially those built on self-determination and self-protection, with trade and economic benefits for all participants), would greatly strengthen our position in dealing with Juncker & Co, and possibly even return us to the status of equal partner in the 'divorce' proceedings.

Could it be the Russian connection?

Well Poland is hardly pro-Russia, so that fear is largely unfounded, but anyway, Russia is also a large market and energy supplier, so what's not to like about that?

But this is all speculation, and the whole point about negotiation is to keep options open, and when confronting the EU (as we saw when they disemboweled Greece), there is no gentlemanly old boy's understanding, so if we hope to stay 'friends', we have already lost.

If the UK, V4 and Austria did split into some more reasonable trading group, who knows how many nations would seek to follow, and that is a threat the EU cannot contemplate.

First we need to determine just what a good deal looks like, and that's not just free trade of goods and services, but guarantees about Financial systems, then send our negotiating team to Brussels and the PM to Prague.

I believe that Ryanair have some pretty good offers at the moment.